← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sat, Sep 21, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: Joey Kooij, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 78% | 79% | 1.22 | fair |
| Draw | 13% | 14% | 7.56 | value: +6% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 8% | 7% | 12.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Vitesse −2 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Fortuna Sittard −2 | 48% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 74% | 69% | 1.30 | fair |
| Under | 26% | 31% | 3.69 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | ⚽ | Mark Diemers · Fortuna Sittard |
| 27' | 🟨 | Jay-Roy Grot · Vitesse |
| 36' | 🟨 | Mark Diemers · Fortuna Sittard |
| 59' | ⚽ | Tim Matavz · Vitesse |
| 62' | 🟨 | Julian Lelieveld · Vitesse |
| 62' | ⚽ | Martin Angha · Fortuna Sittard |
| 72' | 🟨 | Danilho Doekhi · Vitesse |
| 75' | 🟨 | Tim Matavz · Vitesse |
| 81' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 83' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 90' |
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 12 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| ⚽ |
| Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 538.00 | 1384.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -5.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 9.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.97 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1631.35 | 1406.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.51 | -22.36 |
| eye test v1 | 0.70 | 0.08 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | 0.34 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.10 | 56.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.80 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.63 |
| league points | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 8.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 44.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.17 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | — |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 0.40 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.70 | -0.72 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 7.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.69 | -1.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.18 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.20 |