← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sun, Sep 15, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 74% | 76% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 14% | 6.10 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 10% | 9% | 10.00 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| ADO Den Haag −1.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Feyenoord Rotterdam −1.75 | 49% | 2.00 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 70% | 61% | 1.38 | fair |
| Under | 30% | 39% | 3.15 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Bilal Ould-Chikh · ADO Den Haag |
| 6' | ⚽ (pen) | Rick Karsdorp · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 21' | ⚽ | Luciano Narsingh · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 33' | ⚽ (pen) | Leroy Fer · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 34' | 🟨 | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 36' | 🟨 | Eric Botteghin · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 50' | 🟨 | Dion Malone · ADO Den Haag |
| 77' | ⚽ (og) | Edgar Ié · ADO Den Haag |
| 83' | ⚽ (og) | Renato Tapia · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 7 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 1 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.40 |
| venue | Stadion Feijenoord |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 106.00 | 2052.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.62 | 3.57 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1716.68 | 1557.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.96 | -12.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.63 | 0.40 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.33 | -0.31 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.60 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.41 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.78 |
| league points | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 78.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.40 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 13.91 | 14.74 |
| scorer concentration | — | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 10.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | 0.25 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.89 | 28.33 |
| state index | 0.88 | 0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.40 | -0.01 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |