← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sun, Sep 15, 10:15 AM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 59% | 49% | 1.65 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 26% | 4.37 | value: +15% |
| Waalwijk win | 18% | 24% | 6.00 | value: +45% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Waalwijk −1 | 53% | 1.83 |
| PEC Zwolle −1 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 56% | 1.43 | fair |
| Under | 33% | 44% | 2.93 | value: +29% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Iliass Bel Hassani · PEC Zwolle |
| 28' | ⚽ | Melle Meulensteen · Waalwijk |
| 31' | 🟨 | Stanley Elbers · Waalwijk |
| 34' | ⚽ | Clint Leemans · Waalwijk |
| 38' | 🟨 | Gustavo Hamer · PEC Zwolle |
| 60' | ⚽ | Reza Ghoochannejhad · PEC Zwolle |
| 68' | 🟨 | Juriën Gaari · Waalwijk |
| 81' | ⚽ | Reza Ghoochannejhad · PEC Zwolle |
| 83' | ⚽ | Reza Ghoochannejhad · PEC Zwolle |
| 88' | ⚽ | Reza Ghoochannejhad · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gustavo Hamer |
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | Waalwijk |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | — |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| venue | MAC³PARK Stadion |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days |
| 106.00 |
| 441.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | — |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1452.76 | 1405.89 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -14.00 | -36.17 |
| eye test v1 | 0.31 | 0.28 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.44 | — |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.30 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| league points | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.60 | 84.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.20 | 50.50 |
| rest days | 15.68 | 13.68 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | — |
| season ppg | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.63 | 0.76 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | — |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.50 |
| state index | -0.53 | -1.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.42 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | — |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |