← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sat, Aug 31, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 68% | 63% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 21% | 5.34 | value: +12% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 13% | 16% | 7.50 | value: +20% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Fortuna Sittard −1.5 | 52% | 1.85 |
| SC Heerenveen −1.5 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 71% | 56% | 1.36 | fair |
| Under | 29% | 44% | 3.40 | value: +50% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 27 | Shots | 8 |
| 11 | On target | 3 |
| 14 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand