← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sun, Aug 25, 02:45 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Sparta Rotterdam win | 37% | 36% | 2.60 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 37% | 38% | 2.62 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.74 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| PEC Zwolle +0.25 | 57% | 1.69 |
| Sparta Rotterdam +0.25 | 43% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 56% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 44% | 2.55 | value: +13% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 17 | Shots | 22 |
| 8 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand