β Eredivisie 2019-20 Β· Sun, Aug 25, 10:15 AM UTC Β· ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Waalwijk win | 41% | 43% | 2.37 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 34% | 34% | 2.90 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | 3.91 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| ADO Den Haag β0.25 | 53% | 1.87 |
| Waalwijk β0.25 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 66% | 56% | 1.46 | fair |
| Under | 34% | 44% | 2.83 | value: +24% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 5 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand