β Eredivisie 2019-20 Β· Sun, Aug 18, 12:30 PM UTC Β· ref: Martin Perez, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
βMarketβ = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin β the world's best guess. βModelβ = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) β it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Twente '65 win | 62% | 73% | 1.56 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 21% | 17% | 4.75 | fair |
| Waalwijk win | 17% | 10% | 5.65 | fair |
across 3 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Twente '65 β1 | 51% | 1.93 |
| Waalwijk β1 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| Over | 62% | 55% | 1.55 | fair |
| Under | 38% | 45% | 2.55 | value: +15% |
across 2 bookmakers Β· probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data Β· goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 14 |
| 7 | On target | 9 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 8 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in β computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match Β· 1 more recorded fact β tap to expand