← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sat, Aug 10, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 46% | 44% | 2.12 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 27% | 3.50 | fair |
| FC Twente '65 win | 27% | 29% | 3.62 | value: +6% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| FC Twente '65 −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under | 53% | 53% | 1.84 | fair |
| Over | 47% | 47% | 2.05 | fair |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | 🟨 | Ko Itakura · FC Groningen |
| 41' | 🟥 | Ramon Pascal Lundqvist · FC Groningen |
| 45' | 🟥 | Mike te Wierik · FC Groningen |
| 46' | 🟨 | Amir Absalem · FC Groningen |
| 55' | ⚽ | Keito Nakamura · FC Twente '65 |
| 64' | 🟨 | Javi Espinosa · FC Twente '65 |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Aitor Cantalapiedra · FC Twente '65 |
| 83' | 🟨 | Azor Matusiwa · FC Groningen |
| 84' | ⚽ | Ritsu Doan · FC Groningen |
| 85' | 🟨 | Giorgi Aburjania · FC Twente '65 |
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 7 |
| 4 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 0 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 2 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | FC Twente '65 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium |
| 90' |
| ⚽ |
| Haris Vučkić · FC Twente '65 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 435.00 | 678.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1566.70 | 1440.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.29 | 6.84 |
| eye test v1 | -0.06 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.20 | 59.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.60 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 70.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.91 |
| season ppg | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.60 | 9.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.47 | -1.32 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.32 | 24.70 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.59 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.51 | -1.16 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.20 |