← Eredivisie 2019-20 · Sat, Aug 3, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 64% | 59% | 1.51 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 24% | 4.79 | value: +15% |
| Vitesse win | 16% | 16% | 6.50 | value: +7% |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax +1 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Vitesse +1 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 59% | 1.41 | fair |
| Under | 32% | 41% | 3.00 | value: +23% |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | ⚽ | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
| 23' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
| 30' | ⚽ | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
| 55' | ⚽ | Riechedly Bazoer · Vitesse |
| 71' | 🟨 | Joël Veltman · AFC Ajax |
| 73' | 🟨 | Nicolás Tagliafico · AFC Ajax |
| 74' | 🟨 | Daley Blind · AFC Ajax |
| 75' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 82' | 🟨 | Riechedly Bazoer · Vitesse |
| 85' | 🟨 | Riechedly Bazoer · Vitesse |
| 85' |
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 26 |
| 3 | On target | 9 |
| 0 | Corners | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.50 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| 🟥 |
| Riechedly Bazoer · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| coach days | 489.00 | 579.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.31 | 1.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1605.57 | 1869.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 29.37 | 17.74 |
| eye test v1 | 0.75 | 2.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.29 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.00 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 3.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.65 | 1.83 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.60 | 60.80 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 19.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.08 | 1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.20 | 8.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 10.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 9.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.50 |
| state index | 0.87 | 1.81 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.36 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |