← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Wed, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 57% | 55% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 29% | 4.40 | value: +26% |
| SC Heerenveen win | 21% | 17% | 4.69 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Ben Rienstra · SC Heerenveen |
| 41' | ⚽ | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 48' | ⚽ | Sander van de Streek · FC Utrecht |
| 81' | ⚽ | Cyriel Dessers · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 11 |
| 9 | On target | 5 |
| 5 | Corners | 1 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | SC Heerenveen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days |
| 256.00 |
| 1078.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.88 | 2.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1587.85 | 1496.72 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -47.25 | -22.56 |
| eye test v1 | -0.14 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.00 | 0.29 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 61.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| league points | 50.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 77.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 57.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.28 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.19 | 0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.20 |
| state index | -0.37 | -0.21 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |