← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Wed, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 38% | 46% | 2.55 | value: +17% |
| NAC Breda win | 36% | 31% | 2.68 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 51' | 🟨 | Mitchell Te Vrede · NAC Breda |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kenneth Paal · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 17 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 6 |
| 6 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| coach days | 287.00 | 165.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| -1.20 |
| 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.17 | 2.98 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1364.59 | 1468.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -23.91 | -15.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.16 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 50.50 | 61.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.64 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| league points | 22.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.60 | 86.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 60.40 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.37 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.67 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | 1.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.20 |
| state index | -1.13 | -0.41 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | 1.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |