← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Wed, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 63% | 62% | 1.52 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 20% | 5.13 | value: +4% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 18% | 18% | 5.37 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Jeffrey Fortes · SBV Excelsior |
| 30' | ⚽ | Teun Koopmeiners · AZ |
| 41' | 🟨 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 51' | ⚽ (og) | Ricardo Van Rhijn · SBV Excelsior |
| 59' | 🟨 | Albert Guðmundsson · AZ |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Luigi Bruins · SBV Excelsior |
| 66' | ⚽ | Elías Már Ómarsson · SBV Excelsior |
| 70' | ⚽ | Björn Johnsen · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 19 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 9 |
| 8 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| coach days |
| 41.00 |
| 1717.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.28 | 2.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1402.77 | 1674.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.73 | -10.04 |
| eye test v1 | -0.25 | 0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.33 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.30 | 69.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.56 | 1.08 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.73 |
| league points | 30.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 53.80 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.76 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.80 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | 0.62 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.50 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 5.60 |
| state index | -0.62 | 0.34 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |