← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heracles win | 46% | 54% | 2.12 | value: +14% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 29% | 19% | 3.34 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 28% | 3.85 | value: +6% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Elías Már Ómarsson · SBV Excelsior |
| 23' | ⚽ | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 43' | 🟨 | Maximilian Rossmann · Heracles |
| 45' | ⚽ | Elías Már Ómarsson · SBV Excelsior |
| 51' | ⚽ | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 59' | ⚽ | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 62' | ⚽ | Lerin Duarte · Heracles |
| 71' | ⚽ | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 89' | ⚽ | Dennis Eckert · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' | ⚽ | Elías Már Ómarsson · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 10 | On target | 8 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| coach days |
| 315.00 |
| 38.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.76 | 2.59 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1512.54 | 1387.91 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.72 | -24.85 |
| eye test v1 | 0.35 | -0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 63.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.75 |
| league points | 48.00 | 27.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 0.84 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | -3.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.22 | 0.18 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 7.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.40 |
| state index | -0.03 | -1.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.07 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |