← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 82% | 77% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 15% | 8.39 | value: +29% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 6% | 8% | 15.14 | value: +20% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 42' | ⚽ | Erik Falkenburg · ADO Den Haag |
| 58' | ⚽ | Sheraldo Becker · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 29 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 5 |
| 10 | Corners | 7 |
| 5 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.51 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| coach days | 1472.00 | 1926.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.23 |
| venue | De Kuip |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.87 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.69 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1719.78 | 1532.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 35.03 | 46.05 |
| eye test v1 | 2.31 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.18 | 0.76 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 64.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.50 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.74 |
| league points | 62.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 74.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 18.00 | 17.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 11.60 | -11.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 21.20 | 10.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.36 | -0.50 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.33 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.34 | 29.43 |
| state index | 1.61 | 0.37 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.14 | -0.49 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |