← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, May 12, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 83% | 85% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 10% | 8.51 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 6% | 5% | 16.34 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1' | ⚽ | Othman Boussaid · FC Utrecht |
| 7' | 🟨 | Riechedly Bazoer · FC Utrecht |
| 14' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 36' | 🟨 | Timo Letschert · FC Utrecht |
| 40' | 🟨 | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 45' | ⚽ | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
| 54' | 🟨 | Sander van de Streek · FC Utrecht |
| 60' | 🟨 | Nicolás Tagliafico · AFC Ajax |
| 75' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 25 | Shots | 11 |
| 12 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.45 | 0.25 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 496.00 | 253.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.07 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 3.10 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1876.55 | 1603.86 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.63 | -32.01 |
| eye test v1 | 1.73 | 0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 62.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.90 | 2.36 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.80 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.67 |
| league points | 80.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.00 | 79.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 54.20 |
| rest days | 19.00 | 18.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| season ppg | 2.50 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.02 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.40 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.12 | 25.16 |
| state index | 1.82 | 0.11 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.25 | -0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |