← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Edwin Van de Graaf, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 73% | 73% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 6.07 | fair |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 12% | 11% | 8.17 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 41' | 🟨 | Kai Heerings · Fortuna Sittard |
| 44' | ⚽ | Andrija Balić · Fortuna Sittard |
| 53' | 🟨 | Mica Pinto · Fortuna Sittard |
| 68' | ⚽ | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 23 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 3 |
| 11 | Corners | 4 |
| 11 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.22 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.52 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| 2.60 |
| coach days | 235.00 | 1234.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.45 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1600.29 | 1395.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.31 | -8.07 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.49 | -0.26 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.55 |
| league points | 47.00 | 34.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 72.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.20 | 40.40 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.30 | -1.11 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 25.66 | 24.95 |
| state index | -0.20 | -0.85 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.08 | -1.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.00 |