← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 66% | 67% | 1.45 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 20% | 5.20 | value: +6% |
| NAC Breda win | 15% | 13% | 6.31 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | ⚽ | Jeremiah St. Juste · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 45' | ⚽ | Dylan Vente · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 66' | ⚽ | Jens Toornstra · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 70' | ⚽ | Jens Toornstra · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 5 | Shots | 27 |
| 1 | On target | 5 |
| 1 | Corners | 8 |
| 6 | Fouls | 6 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | NAC Breda | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.13 | 0.59 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 |
| venue | Rat Verlegh Stadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 266.00 | 1454.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1386.58 | 1713.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.30 | 18.11 |
| eye test v1 | 0.28 | 2.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 58.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.70 |
| league points | 22.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.20 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.38 | 0.27 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 18.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.45 | 1.13 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 8.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 10.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| squad age | 25.21 | 27.90 |
| state index | -0.61 | 0.89 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.03 | -0.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |