← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Tue, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 72% | 73% | 1.33 | fair |
| Draw | 16% | 16% | 6.00 | fair |
| Heracles win | 12% | 10% | 8.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 8' | ⚽ | Calvin Stengs · AZ |
| 41' | ⚽ | Brandley Kuwas · Heracles |
| 50' | 🟨 | Owen Wijndal · AZ |
| 66' | ⚽ | Albert Guðmundsson · AZ |
| 76' | 🟨 | Albert Guðmundsson · AZ |
| 81' | 🟨 | Teun Koopmeiners · AZ |
| 85' | 🟨 | Joey Konings · Heracles |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 4 |
| 2 | Corners | 4 |
| 13 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1695.00 | 296.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.16 | 1.76 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1665.73 | 1524.33 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.12 | 6.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.17 | 0.20 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.00 | 55.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.17 | 1.60 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| league points | 52.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.60 | 50.20 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.32 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -0.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.68 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 25.15 | 25.15 |
| state index | 0.08 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.52 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |