← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Tue, Apr 23, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 83% | 83% | 1.16 | fair |
| Draw | 11% | 11% | 8.70 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 6% | 5% | 15.27 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 41' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
| 53' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
| 54' | ⚽ (pen) | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 58' | ⚽ | Matthijs de Ligt · AFC Ajax |
| 66' | ⚽ | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 69' | 🟨 | Joël Veltman · AFC Ajax |
| 80' | 🟨 | Maikel Van der Werff · Vitesse |
| 80' | ⚽ (pen) | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 82' | ⚽ | Oussama Darfalou · Vitesse |
| 86' | 🟨 | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
| 90' | 🟥 | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 20 | Shots | 9 |
| 9 | On target | 4 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days |
| 477.00 |
| 387.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 2.21 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1857.35 | 1589.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 30.90 | 19.44 |
| eye test v1 | 1.45 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.40 | -0.50 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.00 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.96 | 1.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.10 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.57 |
| league points | 77.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.80 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 60.60 | 47.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 2.48 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.80 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.02 | -0.37 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.20 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 24.82 | — |
| state index | 1.74 | 0.30 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.48 | -0.77 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.00 |