← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard win | 42% | 44% | 2.33 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 32% | 31% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | 3.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 23' | 🟨 | Ahmed El Messaoudi · Fortuna Sittard |
| 39' | ⚽ (pen) | Mark Diemers · Fortuna Sittard |
| 80' | ⚽ | Mark Diemers · Fortuna Sittard |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mitchell Te Vrede · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 5 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Fortuna Sittard | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.00 |
| venue | Fortuna Sittard Stadion |
| coach days | 1231.00 | 263.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.55 | 3.25 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1386.71 | 1395.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.12 | -3.63 |
| eye test v1 | -0.69 | -0.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.30 | 53.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.71 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.67 |
| league points | 31.00 | 22.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 78.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.20 | 50.40 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.03 | 0.73 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -1.34 | 0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| squad age | 24.77 | 25.31 |
| state index | -0.68 | -0.72 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.02 | -0.13 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |