← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 21, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 41% | 48% | 2.35 | value: +14% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 33% | 26% | 2.95 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 26% | 3.73 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Renato Tapia · Willem II Tilburg |
| 81' | 🟨 | Diego Palacios · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mounir El Hamdaoui · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.28 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| coach days |
| 17.00 |
| 263.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.22 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1393.78 | 1524.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -41.24 | 41.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.58 | 0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.50 | 55.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.84 | 0.95 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.55 |
| league points | 26.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 8.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 76.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.20 | 47.20 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 0.87 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.60 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 13.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.45 | -0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.40 |
| state index | -1.32 | 0.31 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.33 | -0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |