← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 61% | 60% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 25% | 4.46 | value: +10% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 17% | 15% | 5.56 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 23' | ⚽ | Lennart Thy · PEC Zwolle |
| 27' | 🟥 | Alexander Büttner · Vitesse |
| 43' | 🟨 | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
| 47' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
| 73' | ⚽ | Dauda Mohammed · Vitesse |
| 76' | 🟨 | Kingsley Ehizibue · PEC Zwolle |
| 77' | ⚽ | Bryan Linssen · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 10 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 384.00 | 140.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.37 | 3.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1590.62 | 1493.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.57 | 26.33 |
| eye test v1 | 0.92 | 0.69 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 59.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 1.69 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.66 |
| league points | 44.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.17 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 12.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 0.78 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 25.13 | 25.50 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.12 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.89 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |