← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 20, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 75% | 66% | 1.28 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 19% | 6.50 | value: +23% |
| FC Groningen win | 10% | 15% | 9.14 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 28' | 🟨 | Paul Gladon · FC Groningen |
| 73' | 🟨 | Samir Memisevic · FC Groningen |
| 73' | 🟨 | Joël Veltman · AFC Ajax |
| 75' | 🟨 | Ludovit Reis · FC Groningen |
| 76' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · FC Groningen |
| 78' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 79' | 🟨 | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 84' | 🟨 | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 84' | 🟥 | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 16 |
| 2 | On target | 5 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.52 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.48 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium |
| coach days |
| 323.00 |
| 474.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.58 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| elo | 1563.17 | 1853.15 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.51 | 13.59 |
| eye test v1 | -0.12 | 1.66 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.17 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.10 | 54.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 2.12 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.85 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| league points | 42.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 65.20 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 60.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.40 | 2.47 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 16.60 |
| skill v1 | -1.55 | 1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 8.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 8.20 |
| squad age | — | 24.28 |
| state index | 0.50 | 1.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.94 | 0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |