← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Rob Dieperink, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 45% | 48% | 2.15 | value: +4% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 29% | 25% | 3.38 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | 3.70 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 38' | ⚽ | Damil Dankerlui · Willem II Tilburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kingsley Ehizibue · PEC Zwolle |
| 60' | ⚽ | Alexander Isak · Willem II Tilburg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Mickey van der Hart · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 6 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 11 | Fouls | 16 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 256.00 | 134.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.10 | 2.72 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1522.71 | 1505.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 34.41 | 36.60 |
| eye test v1 | 1.09 | 0.88 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.24 | 0.51 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.50 | 63.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| league points | 40.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.38 | 1.21 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.32 | 0.65 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 5.30 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.20 |
| squad age | 24.57 | 25.65 |
| state index | 0.23 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.69 | 0.06 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |