← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Apr 14, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bas Nijhuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 40% | 32% | 2.45 | fair |
| SC Heerenveen win | 32% | 36% | 3.01 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 28% | 32% | 3.43 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 11' | 🟨 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · FC Groningen |
| 38' | ⚽ | Pelle van Amersfoort · SC Heerenveen |
| 57' | 🟨 | Doke Schmidt · SC Heerenveen |
| 59' | 🟨 | Yuki Kobayashi · SC Heerenveen |
| 61' | ⚽ | Paul Gladon · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 2 |
| 13 | Fouls | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 1047.00 | 317.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.09 | 1.03 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.02 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1511.22 | 1576.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -35.72 | 13.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.18 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.59 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.76 |
| league points | 36.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.00 | 67.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.00 | 45.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.24 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.00 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 0.05 | -1.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| squad age | 23.72 | 23.27 |
| state index | -0.65 | 0.36 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.41 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |