← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 77% | 77% | 1.24 | fair |
| Draw | 14% | 15% | 6.90 | value: +4% |
| Heracles win | 9% | 8% | 10.69 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Steven Berghuis · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 47' | ⚽ | Jesper Drost · Heracles |
| 65' | 🟥 | Nicolai Jørgensen · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 82' | ⚽ (pen) | Steven Berghuis · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 86' | 🟨 | Tim Breukers · Heracles |
| 89' | 🟨 | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 90' | 🟨 | Tyrell Malacia · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 14 |
| 12 | On target | 3 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 16 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | De Kuip |
| coach days |
| 1443.00 |
| 286.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.25 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.63 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.43 |
| elo | 1686.58 | 1513.41 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.12 | 13.49 |
| eye test v1 | 1.44 | -0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.20 | 56.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 1.73 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| league points | 53.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.00 | 75.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.83 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.00 | -2.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 18.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.38 | -0.20 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| state index | 0.73 | 0.06 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.30 | 0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |