← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 76% | 72% | 1.26 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 20% | 6.27 | value: +25% |
| ADO Den Haag win | 9% | 8% | 10.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ | Erik Falkenburg · ADO Den Haag |
| 47' | ⚽ | Erik Falkenburg · ADO Den Haag |
| 66' | 🟨 | Fredrik Midtsjø · AZ |
| 71' | 🟨 | Tom Beugelsdijk · ADO Den Haag |
| 85' | ⚽ | Albert Guðmundsson · AZ |
| 90' | ⚽ | Albert Guðmundsson · AZ |
| 90' | ⚽ | Sheraldo Becker · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 36 | Shots | 11 |
| 11 | On target | 5 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 6 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1685.00 | 1897.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.42 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1689.06 | 1511.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.23 | 9.16 |
| eye test v1 | 0.16 | -0.33 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.81 | 0.14 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 67.00 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| league points | 52.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.20 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.79 | 1.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -2.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 12.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.10 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.86 | 28.97 |
| state index | 0.73 | -0.03 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.03 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.16 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.60 |