← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 91% | 90% | 1.06 | fair |
| Draw | 6% | 7% | 15.39 | value: +12% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 3% | 3% | 33.66 | value: +4% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | 🟨 | Noussair Mazraoui · AFC Ajax |
| 10' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 32' | 🟨 | Jeffrey Fortes · SBV Excelsior |
| 37' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 40' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 42' | ⚽ | Mounir El Hamdaoui · SBV Excelsior |
| 43' | 🟨 | Ryan Koolwijk · SBV Excelsior |
| 49' | 🟨 | Mounir El Hamdaoui · SBV Excelsior |
| 60' | ⚽ (pen) | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 65' | ⚽ | Klaas-Jan Huntelaar · AFC Ajax |
| 75' | ⚽ | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
| 84' | 🟨 | Jürgen Ekkelenkamp · AFC Ajax |
| 89' | ⚽ | Jeffrey Fortes · SBV Excelsior |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 22 | Shots | 9 |
| 13 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 1 |
| 9 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.46 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.23 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days | 467.00 | 9.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.44 | 1.95 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1866.76 | 1404.28 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.51 | -47.38 |
| eye test v1 | 1.34 | -0.60 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.55 | 0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 65.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.85 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.78 |
| league points | 71.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.60 | 77.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.45 | 0.90 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.00 | -4.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.48 | 0.09 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.20 | 3.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.00 |
| squad age | 25.44 | 27.66 |
| state index | 1.49 | -1.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.75 | 0.05 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 0.20 |