← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 73% | 59% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 15% | 25% | 6.24 | value: +55% |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 12% | 16% | 8.10 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Daniel Crowley · Willem II Tilburg |
| 14' | ⚽ | Donny van de Beek · AFC Ajax |
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexander Isak · Willem II Tilburg |
| 29' | 🟨 | Fernando Lewis · Willem II Tilburg |
| 41' | ⚽ (og) | Freek Heerkens · AFC Ajax |
| 53' | ⚽ | Joël Veltman · AFC Ajax |
| 70' | ⚽ | Hakim Ziyech · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 3 | Corners | 1 |
| 10 | Fouls | 15 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.56 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.49 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| coach days |
| 248.00 |
| 460.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.23 | 2.92 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1518.50 | 1845.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.98 | 9.92 |
| eye test v1 | 1.20 | 1.82 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.90 | 57.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 2.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.85 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.62 |
| league points | 40.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.20 | 84.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.00 | 63.20 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 2.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.51 | 1.66 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 8.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 7.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.40 |
| squad age | — | 23.74 |
| state index | 0.35 | 1.28 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.96 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |