← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Apr 6, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = what our machine-learning model said BEFORE this game, replayed honestly (it never saw the result). A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|
| FC Groningen win | 61% | 67% | 1.58 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 24% | 20% | 4.09 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 16% | 13% | 6.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 10 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 1 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 15 | Fouls | 14 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadium |