← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Wed, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Martin Van den Kerkhof, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBV Excelsior win | 46% | 45% | 2.13 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 29% | 31% | 3.39 | value: +5% |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.75 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 30' | ⚽ | Mounir El Hamdaoui · SBV Excelsior |
| 67' | ⚽ | Giovanni Korte · NAC Breda |
| 90' | ⚽ | Menno Koch · NAC Breda |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 22 |
| 5 | On target | 12 |
| 5 | Corners | 9 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.23 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| coach days | 2.00 | 245.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -4.20 | -3.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 7.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.38 | 2.22 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1421.23 | 1388.20 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -28.09 | -16.24 |
| eye test v1 | -0.36 | -0.82 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.90 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.58 |
| league points | 26.00 | 18.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 10.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 71.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.60 | 40.00 |
| rest days | 3.96 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.41 |
| season ppg | 0.96 | 0.67 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -10.00 | -7.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 9.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | -1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| squad age | 26.55 | 25.24 |
| state index | -0.86 | -1.43 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.13 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |