← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Tue, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 41% | 37% | 2.39 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 34% | 34% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 29% | 3.81 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Ron Vlaar · AZ |
| 44' | ⚽ | Teun Koopmeiners · AZ |
| 48' | ⚽ | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
| 56' | 🟨 | Alexander Büttner · Vitesse |
| 69' | 🟨 | Fredrik Midtsjø · AZ |
| 77' | ⚽ | Thomas Buitink · Vitesse |
| 78' | 🟨 | Ron Vlaar · AZ |
| 84' | 🟨 | Dauda Mohammed · Vitesse |
| 89' | 🟨 | Thomas Ouwejan · AZ |
| 90' | 🟨 | Teun Koopmeiners · AZ |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 14 | Shots | 8 |
| 3 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 11 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 366.00 | 1674.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 6.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1580.43 | 1696.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.38 | 3.92 |
| eye test v1 | 1.58 | 0.53 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.39 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.70 | 68.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.57 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.59 | 0.87 |
| league points | 41.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 16.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 2.96 | 2.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 19.00 | 14.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.17 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.40 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.05 | 25.10 |
| state index | 0.60 | 0.69 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.00 | 0.11 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |