← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 31, 02:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 42% | 39% | 2.31 | fair |
| FC Utrecht win | 33% | 31% | 2.92 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.91 | value: +16% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Urby Emanuelson · FC Utrecht |
| 60' | ⚽ | Sander van de Streek · FC Utrecht |
| 64' | ⚽ | Sam Larsson · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 75' | ⚽ | Robin van Persie · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 90' | ⚽ | Timo Letschert · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 4 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days |
| 211.00 |
| 1430.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 2.73 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.02 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1612.20 | 1679.44 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 26.88 | -19.12 |
| eye test v1 | 0.62 | 1.74 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.16 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 63.00 | 61.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.84 | 1.87 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.67 |
| league points | 40.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.80 | 84.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.80 | 65.40 |
| rest days | 14.96 | 14.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.81 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.40 | -0.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 16.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.46 | 1.87 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 8.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 8.40 |
| state index | 0.88 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.26 | 0.91 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |