← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Richard Martens, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem II Tilburg win | 62% | 55% | 1.56 | fair |
| Draw | 19% | 25% | 4.98 | value: +22% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 19% | 20% | 5.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | 🟨 | Vurnon Anita · Willem II Tilburg |
| 32' | ⚽ | Andrija Novakovich · Fortuna Sittard |
| 35' | 🟨 | José Rodríguez · Fortuna Sittard |
| 41' | 🟥 | Andrija Balić · Fortuna Sittard |
| 42' | 🟨 | Lisandro Semedo · Fortuna Sittard |
| 43' | 🟨 | Branislav Niňaj · Fortuna Sittard |
| 44' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexander Isak · Willem II Tilburg |
| 53' | ⚽ | Branislav Niňaj · Fortuna Sittard |
| 56' | 🟨 | Mark Diemers · Fortuna Sittard |
| 58' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexander Isak · Willem II Tilburg |
| 61' | ⚽ (pen) | Alexander Isak · Willem II Tilburg |
| 89' | 🟨 | Amadou Ciss · Fortuna Sittard |
| 90' | 🟨 | Clint Essers · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 8 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 5 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Willem II Tilburg | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.52 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.73 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Koning Willem II Stadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 241.00 | 1209.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 2.58 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.36 |
| elo | 1511.26 | 1403.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.57 | -15.46 |
| eye test v1 | 0.93 | -0.06 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.47 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.40 | 62.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 3.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.66 |
| league points | 34.00 | 29.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.80 | 73.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 40.80 | 42.60 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 15.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.26 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.31 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -1.04 | -0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 24.25 | 24.78 |
| state index | 0.15 | -1.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.41 | -0.68 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.00 |