← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Heerenveen win | 60% | 65% | 1.60 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 20% | 20% | 4.74 | fair |
| SBV Excelsior win | 19% | 15% | 4.96 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 69' | 🟨 | Jurgen Matheij · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jerdy Schouten · SBV Excelsior |
| 90' | ⚽ | Pelle van Amersfoort · SC Heerenveen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 17 |
| 5 | On target | 5 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 8 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Heerenveen | SBV Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.49 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.49 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.51 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 |
| venue | Abe Lenstra Stadion |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 1032.00 | 971.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.03 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.06 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.30 |
| elo | 1530.46 | 1426.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.27 | -12.74 |
| eye test v1 | 1.00 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.25 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.70 | 62.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.55 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.60 | 0.74 |
| league points | 33.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 18.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.60 | 79.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.80 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.27 | 1.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | -11.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 8.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.08 | 0.23 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 6.00 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.42 | 26.48 |
| state index | 0.05 | -0.90 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.21 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.20 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |