← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 50% | 52% | 1.94 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 26% | 28% | 3.77 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 24% | 19% | 3.95 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Sheraldo Becker · ADO Den Haag |
| 21' | ⚽ | Thomas Buitink · Vitesse |
| 27' | ⚽ | Thomas Buitink · Vitesse |
| 31' | ⚽ | Lex Immers · ADO Den Haag |
| 43' | ⚽ | Thomas Buitink · Vitesse |
| 59' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
| 76' | ⚽ | Lex Immers · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 12 | Shots | 13 |
| 4 | On target | 9 |
| 8 | Corners | 4 |
| 8 | Fouls | 17 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | ADO Den Haag | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Cars Jeans Stadion |
| coach days | 1883.00 | 363.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.95 | 2.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.67 |
| elo | 1485.75 | 1581.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.79 | 20.85 |
| eye test v1 | -0.94 | 1.64 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | 0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 62.60 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.62 |
| league points | 28.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 67.40 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.60 | 49.80 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.08 | 1.54 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 9.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.80 | 20.40 |
| skill v1 | -1.28 | 0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 7.40 |
| squad age | 28.60 | 26.03 |
| state index | -0.60 | 0.56 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -1.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |