← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 30, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 65% | 66% | 1.47 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.56 | fair |
| FC Groningen win | 13% | 13% | 7.18 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | 🟨 | Thomas Bruns · FC Groningen |
| 45' | 🟨 | Adam Maher · AZ |
| 53' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · FC Groningen |
| 70' | ⚽ | Ron Vlaar · AZ |
| 78' | 🟨 | Mo El Hankouri · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 9 | Shots | 8 |
| 2 | On target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days |
| 1671.00 |
| 302.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.46 | 1.14 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1681.32 | 1559.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.36 | 25.59 |
| eye test v1 | 1.20 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.38 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 68.80 | 63.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.57 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.84 | 0.74 |
| league points | 47.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.20 | 48.80 |
| rest days | 13.00 | 13.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.81 | 1.35 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 15.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.47 | -0.98 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 1.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.50 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.98 | 0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.25 | -1.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.20 |