← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Dennis Higler, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Groningen win | 60% | 62% | 1.62 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 21% | 4.47 | fair |
| ADO Den Haag win | 19% | 17% | 5.10 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ (og) | Lex Immers · FC Groningen |
| 35' | 🟨 | Dion Malone · ADO Den Haag |
| 37' | 🟨 | Ludovit Reis · FC Groningen |
| 42' | 🟨 | Deyovaisio Zeefuik · FC Groningen |
| 42' | 🟨 | Abdenasser El Khayati · ADO Den Haag |
| 44' | 🟨 | Kaj Sierhuis · FC Groningen |
| 76' | 🟨 | Wilfried Kanon · ADO Den Haag |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 13 | Shots | 7 |
| 5 | On target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 3 |
| 15 | Fouls | 17 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Groningen | ADO Den Haag |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.23 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |
| venue | Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion |
| coach days | 289.00 | 1870.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 3.20 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1565.96 | 1492.08 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 28.47 | -18.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.10 | -0.65 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.20 | 63.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.67 |
| league points | 32.00 | 28.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 70.20 | 70.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.20 | 46.60 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.12 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | -3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.20 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.81 | -0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 6.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 23.83 | 28.64 |
| state index | 0.69 | -0.63 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.92 | -0.53 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |