← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Siemen Mulder, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle win | 40% | 45% | 2.45 | value: +11% |
| SBV Excelsior win | 33% | 32% | 2.91 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 23% | 3.60 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 12' | 🟨 | Gustavo Hamer · PEC Zwolle |
| 44' | 🟨 | Bram Van Polen · PEC Zwolle |
| 82' | ⚽ | Kingsley Ehizibue · PEC Zwolle |
| 84' | ⚽ | Younes Namli · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 6 | Shots | 20 |
| 1 | On target | 8 |
| 6 | Corners | 11 |
| 8 | Fouls | 11 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SBV Excelsior | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stadion Woudestein |
| coach days | 958.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | 2.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.97 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1443.40 | 1467.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.44 | -28.05 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | -0.11 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.09 | -0.09 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | 59.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.63 |
| league points | 26.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 80.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.20 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.20 | 0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.60 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 0.54 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.67 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.00 |
| squad age | 27.63 | 25.10 |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.70 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.11 | 0.54 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |