← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 17, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Serdar Gozubuyuk, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 59% | 61% | 1.64 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 21% | 4.60 | fair |
| AZ win | 20% | 18% | 4.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 56' | ⚽ | Guus Til · AZ |
| 64' | 🟨 | Kasper Dolberg · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | AFC Ajax |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.48 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| coach days | 1658.00 | 440.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| 2.40 |
| 5.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 9.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.40 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.72 |
| elo | 1668.22 | 1839.55 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 1.52 | -4.04 |
| eye test v1 | 1.17 | 2.05 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.70 | -0.52 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.70 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 2.28 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 2.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.83 | 0.62 |
| league points | 44.00 | 62.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.20 | 85.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.00 | 65.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 2.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 14.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 22.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.06 | 1.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.30 | 9.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 8.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 8.60 |
| squad age | — | 24.14 |
| state index | 0.92 | 1.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.45 | 0.52 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |