← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 43% | 44% | 2.26 | fair |
| Heracles win | 32% | 26% | 3.03 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.86 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 7' | ⚽ | Navarone Foor · Vitesse |
| 25' | 🟨 | Max Clark · Vitesse |
| 26' | ⚽ | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 38' | 🟨 | Max Clark · Vitesse |
| 38' | 🟥 | Max Clark · Vitesse |
| 45' | 🟨 | Kristoffer Peterson · Heracles |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
| 61' | ⚽ | Dario Van Den Buijs · Heracles |
| 89' | 🟨 | Alexander Büttner · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 12 | Shots | 24 |
| 7 | On target | 6 |
| 4 | Corners | 6 |
| 7 | Fouls | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | Vitesse |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.47 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.39 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.46 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.40 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| coach days |
| 258.00 |
| 349.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.60 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.39 | 3.28 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.63 |
| elo | 1500.33 | 1580.26 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.96 | 22.61 |
| eye test v1 | -0.42 | 1.01 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.26 | 0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.80 | 58.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.89 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.72 | 0.63 |
| league points | 36.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.00 | 78.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 44.80 | 51.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.31 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -9.00 | 7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 17.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.85 | 0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 6.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 6.40 |
| state index | 0.01 | 0.50 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -0.59 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.11 | 0.39 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |