← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 16, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Pol van Boekel, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 74% | 79% | 1.30 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 17% | 5.62 | fair |
| Willem II Tilburg win | 9% | 4% | 10.22 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 20 | Shots | 10 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 10 | Corners | 5 |
| 11 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Feyenoord Rotterdam | Willem II Tilburg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.44 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | De Kuip |
| 1.40 |
| coach days | 1415.00 | 227.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.58 | 3.30 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1711.65 | 1494.63 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.86 | -6.34 |
| eye test v1 | 1.56 | 0.78 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.67 | 0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 62.80 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.00 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.57 |
| league points | 47.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.60 | 75.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 65.60 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| season ppg | 1.88 | 1.24 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.60 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.86 | -0.48 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 8.00 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 27.80 | 23.30 |
| state index | 0.86 | -0.23 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.07 | -0.87 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |