← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Wed, Mar 13, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 88% | 87% | 1.09 | fair |
| Draw | 8% | 10% | 12.28 | value: +18% |
| PEC Zwolle win | 4% | 3% | 23.67 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 25' | 🟨 | Vito van Crooij · PEC Zwolle |
| 32' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 79' | ⚽ | Vito van Crooij · PEC Zwolle |
| 85' | ⚽ | Daley Blind · AFC Ajax |
| 86' | 🟨 | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 86' | 🟨 | Thomas Lam · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joël Veltman · AFC Ajax |
| 90' | 🟨 | Vito van Crooij · PEC Zwolle |
| 90' | 🟥 | Vito van Crooij · PEC Zwolle |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | PEC Zwolle |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.44 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.62 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days |
| 436.00 |
| 102.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 3.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.40 | 7.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.60 |
| elo | 1838.08 | 1458.01 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.46 | -14.84 |
| eye test v1 | 2.37 | 0.17 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.27 | -0.27 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.40 | 63.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.18 | 1.45 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.40 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.63 |
| league points | 59.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 13.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 86.00 | 82.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 66.80 | 56.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.46 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 4.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 23.20 | 13.60 |
| skill v1 | 2.08 | 0.94 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 9.30 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 23.92 | — |
| state index | 1.88 | -0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.21 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.40 |