← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Danny Desmond Makkelie, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 50% | 56% | 1.92 | value: +7% |
| Draw | 26% | 21% | 3.70 | fair |
| PEC Zwolle win | 23% | 23% | 4.14 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 14 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PEC Zwolle | AZ |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.65 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| coach days | 99.00 | 1651.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.18 |
| venue | Mac3Park Stadion |
| corner diff avg (last 5) |
| 3.20 |
| 3.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 7.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.12 | 5.36 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.59 | 0.64 |
| elo | 1464.23 | 1681.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 0.55 | 12.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.18 | 1.55 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.30 | — |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 3.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.62 | 0.77 |
| league points | 25.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 82.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 57.60 | 59.00 |
| rest days | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 7.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.11 | 1.22 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 7.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.60 |
| squad age | 25.02 | 24.98 |
| state index | -0.15 | 1.16 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.78 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |