← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jeroen Manschot, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord Rotterdam win | 42% | 42% | 2.33 | fair |
| Vitesse win | 32% | 26% | 3.05 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.65 | value: +15% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 35' | 🟨 | Steven Berghuis · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 45' | ⚽ | Orkun Kökçü · Feyenoord Rotterdam |
| 47' | ⚽ | Dauda Mohammed · Vitesse |
| 63' | 🟨 | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 19 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | Feyenoord Rotterdam |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.43 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days |
| 343.00 |
| 1409.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.33 | 2.88 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1578.58 | 1697.69 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.65 | -12.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.57 | 1.72 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | -0.18 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 57.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 2.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| league points | 39.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 83.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 53.40 | 62.80 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.63 | 1.92 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 1.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 1.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 8.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 8.00 | 9.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 8.40 |
| state index | 0.77 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.16 | 0.70 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.40 |