← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 10, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Jochem Kamphuis, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Ajax win | 93% | 89% | 1.04 | fair |
| Draw | 5% | 8% | 20.61 | value: +71% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 2% | 3% | 47.73 | value: +47% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 4' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
| 27' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
| 63' | ⚽ | David Neres · AFC Ajax |
| 85' | ⚽ | Dušan Tadić · AFC Ajax |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 21 | Shots | 9 |
| 8 | On target | 2 |
| 7 | Corners | 0 |
| 15 | Fouls | 12 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AFC Ajax | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.42 | 0.46 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.44 | 0.45 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.60 |
| venue | Johan Cruijff Arena |
| coach days |
| 433.00 |
| 1189.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 8.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 4.50 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.33 |
| elo | 1835.19 | 1463.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -30.35 | -31.09 |
| eye test v1 | 2.24 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.70 | 61.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -2.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 4.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 1.34 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 2.40 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.80 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| league points | 56.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.40 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 63.60 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 14.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| season ppg | 2.43 | 1.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 12.40 | -10.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 22.00 | 10.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.70 | -0.31 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 8.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 9.70 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 9.33 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 9.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 23.78 | — |
| state index | 1.35 | -1.13 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.32 | -0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.60 |