← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Fri, Mar 8, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Bjorn Kuipers, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 53% | 52% | 1.81 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 29% | 4.09 | value: +17% |
| FC Groningen win | 23% | 19% | 4.20 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 52' | 🟨 | Jeff Chabot · FC Groningen |
| 72' | 🟨 | Ludovit Reis · FC Groningen |
| 88' | 🟨 | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ajdin Hrustić · FC Groningen |
| 90' | 🟨 | Thomas Bruns · FC Groningen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | On target | 3 |
| 9 | Corners | 7 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Utrecht | FC Groningen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.76 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Stadion Galgenwaard |
| coach days |
| 188.00 |
| 280.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.20 | 0.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1604.49 | 1549.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.70 | 36.61 |
| eye test v1 | 0.69 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.25 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.00 | 63.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.53 | 0.70 |
| league points | 36.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 69.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 47.40 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.29 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.27 | -0.99 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.10 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.33 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| state index | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.41 | -1.09 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.37 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |