← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sun, Mar 3, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Allard Lindhout, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ win | 84% | 84% | 1.14 | fair |
| Draw | 10% | 12% | 9.13 | value: +5% |
| Fortuna Sittard win | 6% | 5% | 16.49 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Teun Koopmeiners · AZ |
| 37' | ⚽ | Lazaros Lamprou · Fortuna Sittard |
| 45' | ⚽ | Andrija Novakovich · Fortuna Sittard |
| 54' | ⚽ | Guus Til · AZ |
| 61' | ⚽ | Oussama Idrissi · AZ |
| 75' | ⚽ | Teun Koopmeiners · AZ |
| 78' | 🟨 | Mica Pinto · Fortuna Sittard |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 21 | Shots | 10 |
| 6 | On target | 6 |
| 9 | Corners | 4 |
| 9 | Fouls | 8 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | AZ | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.47 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.51 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.49 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 3.20 |
| venue | AFAS Stadion |
| coach days | 1644.00 | 1182.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | -4.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 5.38 | 1.77 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.39 |
| elo | 1678.21 | 1393.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 20.41 | 3.95 |
| eye test v1 | 1.68 | 0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.28 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.40 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 3.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.70 |
| league points | 40.00 | 26.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.60 | 73.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 59.40 | 51.60 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.20 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.74 | 1.13 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 8.60 | -7.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 17.20 | 11.60 |
| skill v1 | 1.23 | -0.21 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 9.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 7.60 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 25.03 | 24.79 |
| state index | 1.32 | -0.93 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 0.10 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.60 |