← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Joey Kooij, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse win | 69% | 73% | 1.40 | fair |
| Draw | 20% | 17% | 4.70 | fair |
| NAC Breda win | 11% | 9% | 8.86 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟨 | Arno Verschueren · NAC Breda |
| 29' | ⚽ | Giovanni Korte · NAC Breda |
| 54' | ⚽ | Thomas Buitink · Vitesse |
| 55' | 🟨 | Max Clark · Vitesse |
| 65' | 🟨 | Daan Klomp · NAC Breda |
| 77' | ⚽ | Maikel Van der Werff · Vitesse |
| 86' | ⚽ | Alexander Büttner · Vitesse |
| 88' | 🟨 | Daan Klomp · NAC Breda |
| 88' | 🟥 | Daan Klomp · NAC Breda |
| 90' | ⚽ | Matúš Bero · Vitesse |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 6 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 11 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vitesse | NAC Breda |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |
| venue | GelreDome |
| coach days | 335.00 | 213.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.01 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -3.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.21 | 2.66 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.41 |
| elo | 1583.24 | 1407.11 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -3.60 | -24.60 |
| eye test v1 | 0.25 | -0.92 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.18 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 65.40 | 56.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.37 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.57 | 0.64 |
| league points | 36.00 | 17.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 12.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 75.80 | 68.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.40 | 42.80 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.45 |
| season ppg | 1.57 | 0.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | -6.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 11.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.21 | -1.38 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 6.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 3.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 2.60 |
| squad age | 24.97 | 25.56 |
| state index | 0.37 | -1.24 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.49 | -0.98 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.20 |