← Eredivisie 2018-19 · Sat, Mar 2, 03:00 PM UTC · ref: Christaan Bax, Netherlands
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Utrecht win | 41% | 42% | 2.36 | fair |
| Heracles win | 33% | 34% | 2.93 | fair |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | 3.76 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 9' | ⚽ | Sander van de Streek · FC Utrecht |
| 44' | 🟥 | Jesper Drost · Heracles |
| 50' | ⚽ | Willem Janssen · FC Utrecht |
| 60' | ⚽ | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 65' | ⚽ | Gyrano Kerk · FC Utrecht |
| 73' | 🟨 | Adrian Dalmau · Heracles |
| 77' | 🟨 | Lennart Czyborra · Heracles |
| 79' | ⚽ (pen) | Simon Gustafsson · FC Utrecht |
| 86' | ⚽ (pen) | Riechedly Bazoer · FC Utrecht |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 8 | Shots | 16 |
| 3 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Heracles | FC Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.54 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Polman Stadion |
| coach days |
| 244.00 |
| 182.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.81 | 2.17 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.51 |
| elo | 1518.24 | 1586.17 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 13.86 | -19.40 |
| eye test v1 | 0.08 | 0.35 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.21 | 0.02 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 60.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.07 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.75 | 0.54 |
| league points | 35.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 73.80 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 45.80 | 52.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.27 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.52 | 1.43 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.60 | 0.36 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.60 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.80 |
| state index | 0.22 | 0.02 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.56 | -0.21 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |